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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."